Abstract: Green technological innovation is an important driving force to achieve high-quality development. The uncertainty of technology and market will have a significant impact on the green technological innovation behavior and financial performance of enterprises. Based on existing studies, a conceptual model of the relationship between green technological innovation and financial performance in environmental uncertainty was constructed. An empirical analysis conducted using the information of 302 industrial enterprises obtained by questionnaires as samples shows that green process innovation can improve the financial performance of enterprises through the mediation effect of technology upgrading (from green process innovation to green product innovation). Technological uncertainty has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between green process innovation and green product innovation, while market uncertainty has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between green product innovation and economic performance, and vice versa. At the same time, the moderating effect of technology and market uncertainty has certain boundaries, only in this interval can the moderating effect be activated. The above research is of great significance for deepening the understanding of green technological innovation process and optimizing policy design.

Key words: technological uncertainty, market uncertainty, green technological innovation, financial performance

摘要： 绿色技术创新是实现高质量发展重要动力。技术和市场的不确定性显著影响企业绿色技术创新行为及其经济绩效。在已有研究的基础上，构建不确定性环境下企业绿色技术创新与绩效的概念模型，并以调查问卷获得的302家工业企业信息为样本展开实证分析。结果表明，企业绿色工艺创新会通过技术升级（绿色产品创新）的中介效应来改善其经济绩效。技术的不确定性对绿色工艺创新与绿色产品创新的关系有负向调节作用，而市场的不确定性对绿色产品创新与经济绩效的关系有正向调节作用，反之不成立。同时，技术和市场的不确定性的调节作用存在一定的边界，只有在这个边界范围内才具有调节作用。上述研究对于深化绿色技术创新过程认识及政策设计优化具有参考意义。

关键词: 技术不确定性, 市场不确定性, 绿色技术创新, 经济绩效