Abstract: The random profit function and its mean and variance of firms in emission permit price uncertainty are derived by investigating the optimal response of the firms as price followers to a given emission permit price. Moreover, optimization models with different decision objectives are established following the analytical framework of the mean-variance model. Accordingly, optimal decisions with risk consideration are demonstrated, along with the influences of external scenario factors on optimal decisions. Furthermore, the influence of different parameters on the results of the model is analyzed by numerical simulation, and the conclusions are verified.

Key words: emission trading, production decision, emission permit price, uncertainty, mean-variance analysis

摘要： 通过考察作为价格追随者的企业对排污权市场价格的最优反应，推导了排污权市场价格不确定情境下理性企业的随机利润函数及其均值与方差。遵循均值-方差模型的分析框架，以方差作为企业决策风险的基本测度，建立了基于不同典型决策偏好的优化模型，论证了排污权市场价格不确定情境下考虑风险的企业最优决策及其特征，以及外部情景要素变动对最优决策及其优化结果的影响。最后，通过数值模拟分析了不同参数对模型结果的影响，并较好地验证了所得结论。

关键词: 排污权交易, 生产决策, 排污权市场价格, 不确定性, 均值-方差分析