Abstract: There are competition and evolution in the payment instrument market due to the payment choice behavior of users. Based on the machine learning models, this paper constructs a research framework to analyze the factors influencing users’ choice of payment instruments, and makes an empirical analysis by using the datasets of Chinese 2017 CHFS and US 2018 SCPC. The results show that in addition to the demographic information and the characteristics of the payment instrument mainly analyzed in previous studies, other neglected factors such as the personal financial information, the types of consumer spending, and the characteristics of other payment instruments also significantly affect consumers’ payment choices. For different payment instruments, the influencing factors are quite different. The results not only better reflect the important influencing factors of choice of payment instruments of Chinese and US consumers, but also provide an effective research idea for the in-depth analysis of users’ behavior in the payment market. It is not only helpful to understand the payment market, but also useful for relevant participants, such as government and payment institutions, in making policies and market competition strategies.

Key words: payment, payment instrument, payment choice, driven factors

摘要： 支付市场的竞争和演化源于用户支付选择行为，基于机器学习模型构建了分析用户支付选择影响因素及程度的研究框架，并通过中国2017年CHFS和美国2018年SCPC调查数据进行了实证分析。研究发现：除了前期研究主要分析的人口统计信息和支付工具特征以外，被忽视的其他支付工具特征、个人金融信息、消费支出类型等因素也会显著影响消费者支付选择；且对于不同支付工具，影响因素存在明显差异。研究结果较好地反映了中国和美国消费者对各支付工具选择的重要影响因素的同时，也为各界对支付市场用户行为深层次分析提供了一个有效的研究思路。研究不仅有助于了解支付市场，也为如政府、支付机构等相关参与者制定政策或市场竞争策略提供了依据。

关键词: 支付, 支付工具, 支付选择, 影响因素