Abstract:

Focusing on residents’ concerns and intentions under people-oriented ideas and respecting public opinion are the core concepts for promoting the new urbanization and relocation transformation. Nevertheless, most existing studies merely focus on the impacts of residents’ multiple types of perceptions on their behavioral intention to support the urban policy. Less attention is paid to the role of residents’ emotions in the relationship between perceptions and intention. Through qualitative research, this paper develops a multi-dimensional conception of risk perception towards housing demolition and relocation, comprising livelihood risk, adaptation risk, and benefit risk. Furthermore, it establishes a perception-emotion-intention model, in which perceptions are represented by risk perception and trust in government, and anxiety plays an intermediary role between residents’ perceptions and policy support intention. The results from a large-scale questionnaire survey conducted in 18 pilot regions of China’s new-type urbanization illustrate that anxiety partially mediates the negative effect of risk perception on residents’ intention to support. Trust in government has a direct positive effect on residents’ intention, as well as an indirect effect through the mediator of anxiety. Moreover, the direct effect is significantly greater than the indirect one. Theoretically, this paper integrates anxiety as an important mediator into the theoretical framework for the formation of residents’ behavioral intention. Practically, the above findings provide knowledge for better promoting the construction of new-type urbanization and avoiding mass incidents by timely relieving residents’ anxiety, implementing differentiated policies for different vulnerable groups, facilitating the expression of public opinions, and enhancing the credibility of grassroots governments.

Key words: housing demolition and relocation, risk perception, trust in government, anxiety, intention to support

摘要：

以人为核心、关注民情、尊重民意是推进新型城镇化征迁改造的核心理念。已有研究主要关注居民的多元理性认知对征迁改造意愿的影响，对于情绪在认知与意愿的关系中发挥何种作用仍缺乏解释。运用质性研究方法，开发涵盖生计风险、适应风险和利益风险3个维度的征迁改造风险感知多维构念，以焦虑情绪为中介，建立征迁改造风险感知和政府信任对政策支持意愿影响的“知-情-意”模型。通过对18个新型城镇化改造试点地区居民的大规模实证调查发现：焦虑情绪在征迁改造风险感知对支持意愿的负向影响路径中发挥部分中介作用；政府信任通过直接方式以及减弱焦虑情绪的间接方式正向影响支持意愿，且直接效应显著大于间接效应。将焦虑情绪这一重要中介因素纳入居民意愿形成的分析框架，从及时评估并缓解居民焦虑情绪、面向不同群体实施差异化征迁改造政策、打通民意的“最先和最后一公里”以及提升基层政府公信力等方面为推动新型城镇化建设、避免群体性事件提供政策启示。

关键词: 征迁改造, 风险感知, 政府信任, 焦虑情绪, 支持意愿