Abstract: During the transformation of economic growth mode, the misallocation of production factors has become one of the key obstacles to achieving high-quality economic development. This paper constructs an estimation model by incorporating energy as a factor into the Cobb-Douglas production function. It calculates the degree of energy misallocation and analyzes the spatial correlation features of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2020 based on relative distortion coefficients. Furthermore, it decomposes economic growth into factor inputs and total factor productivity to reveal the differentiated economic growth mode among regions. In a counterfactual analysis framework, it estimates the potential for carbon reduction under scenarios of effective energy allocation. The findings indicate that China’s overall energy misallocation index is 1.501, indicating a moderate overallocation of energy. Among regions, the eastern region exhibits better energy allocation efficiency compared to the central and northeast regions, while western region faces the most severe misallocation issues. Energy misallocation shows significant positive spatial correlation but lacks evident spatial migration characteristics. Capital, labor, and energy inputs play a leading role in contributing to economic growth, with most provinces still following a factor-driven growth model. Only a few regions have transitioned to innovation-driven development. The results from representative cities are consistent with provincial-level findings. Under efficient energy allocation, China’s carbon reduction potential ranges from 13.85% to 16.94%, with the central and western regions showing higher sensitivity to energy misallocation. Resource-based cities exhibit notably higher carbon reduction potential than non-resource-based cities, while declining cities have the highest potential overall. This paper not only provides a novel perspective on factor misallocation and the underlying drivers of China’s economic growth, but also offer valuable insights for policy-making aimed at promoting high-quality economic development and achieving China’s goal of carbon peaking in 2030.

Key words: energy misallocation, economic growth mode, carbon reduction potential, marketization reform

摘要： 在经济增长方式转变过程中，生产要素错配是制约我国经济高质量发展的重要原因之一。本研究通过将能源要素纳入Cobb-Douglas生产函数，构建了能源错配的估计模型，并基于相对扭曲系数测算了全国30个省份及地级市的能源错配程度，系统分析了能源错配的时空演进特征。在此基础上，研究从要素投入和全要素生产率两方面对经济增长变动进行分解，深入探究不同地区差异化的经济增长方式。在反事实分析框架下，估算了能源有效配置情况下的碳减排潜力。研究结果显示：中国整体能源错配程度为1.501，属于中度的能源配置过剩；东部地区能源配置效果优于中部和东北地区，而西部地区的能源错配问题最为突出；2005~2020年间，能源错配呈现先升后降的趋势，且地区间能源错配存在显著的空间正相关性，但未表现出空间迁移特征；资本、劳动和能源要素投入对经济增长的贡献占主导地位，多数省份的经济增长方式仍属于要素驱动型，仅极少数地区实现了向创新驱动型的转变。典型城市的分解结果与省级层面基本一致；当能源要素实现有效配置时，全国的碳减排潜力可达13.85%~16.94%，其中能源错配对中部和西部地区碳排放影响更为显著，而资源型城市的碳减排潜力明显高于非资源型城市，尤其是衰退型资源城市的碳减排潜力最大。研究结论不仅为中国经济增长的要素错配与动力来源问题提供了新的解释，而且对于构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系以及“碳达峰、碳中和”行动方案的实施具有重要的启示意义。

关键词: 能源错配, 经济增长方式, 碳减排潜力, 市场化改革