Journal of Systems & Management ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 1368-1382.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-4558.2025.05.014

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Firms’ Clean Technology Investment and Production Decisions Considering Stochastic Demand under Carbon Trading Policy

JIN Shuai1,2, DING Chenchong1   

  1. 1. School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, China; 2. Computational Experiment Center for Social Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2024-05-31 Revised:2024-08-14 Online:2025-09-28 Published:2025-10-16

碳交易政策下考虑随机需求的企业清洁技术投资及生产决策

金帅1,2,丁晨冲1   

  1. 1.江苏大学 管理学院,江苏 镇江 212013;2.南京大学 社会科学计算实验中心,南京 210093
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71974081,92046022);国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AGL028);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划资助项目(KYCX24_3908)

Abstract: Considering stochastic demand and decision-making preferences, this paper developed a three-stage decision-making model for manufacturing firms under carbon trading policy. This model examines the optimal technology investment and production decisions for firms producing homogeneous products using either clean technology or conventional technology. Additionally, this paper derives a technology investment decision model and a production decision model for risk-neutral firms under stochastic demand scenarios. Following the mean-variance analytical framework, it formulates three optimization models with varying decision preferences. The main findings reveal that the optimal decision for a risk-neutral firm depends on the marginal returns of producing clean products, the cost of technology investment, and the market mean. In contrast, the mean-variance decision-making model, which accounts for downside risk, shows that optimal decisions under different decision preferences systematically deviate from the risk-neutral optimal decisions and exhibit more conservative risk avoidance. Moreover, changes in external contextual factors can even reverse the optimal technology investment decisions. Finally, this paper analyzes the effects of different parameters on the model results and decision deviations using numerical examples, and well validates the conclusions.

Key words: clean technology investment, demand uncertainty, mean-variance analysis, decision preferences

摘要: 在考虑随机需求和决策偏好的基础上,本文构建了碳交易政策背景下制造型企业的三阶段决策模型,探究企业使用清洁技术与普通技术生产同质产品时的最优技术投资与生产决策,推导了随机需求情境下风险中性企业的技术投资决策模型和生产决策模型。基于均值-方差模型分析框架,构建了3种不同决策偏好下的优化模型。研究发现:风险中性企业最优决策与生产单位清洁产品的超额边际收益、技术投资成本及市场均值有关;在考虑利润下行风险的均值-方差决策框架下,不同偏好所导致的企业最优决策会系统性地偏离风险中性最优决策,并表现出趋于保守的风险规避特征;随着外部情境因素的变化,甚至出现技术投资逆转现象。数值模拟进一步验证了各参数对决策结果及偏离程度的影响机制,实证结果与理论推导具有良好的一致性。

关键词: 清洁技术投资, 需求不确定性, 均值-方差, 决策偏好

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