Abstract: Aimed at the problem of random mutation in the occupational well-being of nursing practitioner servicing for the elderly due to external disturbances, this paper proposed a stochastic cusp catastrophic model to analyze the discrete mutation in the occupational well-being of nursing practitioners, and to fit the actual survey data by using the R software considering the influence of work characteristics and organizational climate on the occupational well-being of nursing practitioners. The results show that, in the area studied, the nursing occupation for the elderly has obvious work characteristics of “high work intensity and low wages” and group characteristics of “females, mostly migrant workers, older age, lower education level, and greater mobility”. Most nursing staff are in an steady unhappy working state. The discrete sudden mutation in the occupational well-being of nursing practitioners are determined by work characteristics and organizational atmosphere perception. Work characteristics determine the location of the sudden mutation while organizational atmosphere perception determines the degree of the sudden mutation. Compared with the linear model and the logical model, the cusp model has a better fitting effect on the survey data of occupational well-being of nursing practitioners and can better reveal its internal nonlinear mutation mechanism. In order to improve the extrapolation of the model and the robustness of the conclusions, the data from 14 elderly service agencies were collected and an empirical analysis was conducted. It was found that the conclusion reached by the second collection of data fitting stochastic catastrophe model was in line with the conclusion drew from the cusp catastrophic model and the sample data analysis results of the first time, which proved the good robustness of the model proposed.

Key words: nursing practitioner, occupational well-being, stochastic cusp catastrophe model, job characteristics, organizational climate

摘要： 针对养老护理员工作幸福感因外界扰动而出现随机突变的问题，考虑工作特征和组织氛围对养老护理员工作幸福感的影响，构建了随机尖点突变模型来分析养老护理员工作幸福感离散变化的突变机制，并利用R软件拟合实际调研数据。研究发现：调研地区的养老护理职业具有“工作强度大、工资较低”的显著工作特征和“女性为主、农民工居多、年龄偏大、学历层次较低、流动性较大”群体特征；大部分养老护理员处于工作不幸福稳态；养老护理员工作幸福感的离散突变由工作特征和组织氛围感知共同决定，工作特征决定突变的位置，组织氛围感知决定突变的程度；相比于线性模型和非线性Logistic模型，Cusp模型对养老护理员工作幸福感调研数据的拟合效果更优，更能揭示其内在的非线性突变机制。为提高研究方法的外推性和研究结论的鲁棒效果，通过从14家养老服务机构搜集数据并进行实证分析，发现第2次搜集的数据拟合随机尖点突变模型得出的研究结论与第1次样本数据分析结果基本一致，该研究方法具有较好的鲁棒性。

关键词: 养老护理员, 工作幸福感, 随机尖点突变模型, 工作特征, 组织氛围