Abstract: With the deepening of healthcare reform, public hospitals can no longer rely solely on government funding to sustain operations and development, making it imperative to explore new sources of capital and investment methods. Public-private partnership (PPP) projects introduce private capital, providing a feasible funding solution for public healthcare infrastructure. Based on the assumption of bounded rationality, this paper develops an evolutionary phase diagram and game model involving the government, private capital, and public hospitals to analyze the strategy choices of each stakeholder. Using numerical simulations, it further investigates the influence of different initial conditions and variations in key parameters on the the evolution of strategies among the three parties. The findings provide theoretical insights for improving the management of public hospital construction, optimizing the quality of public services, and enhancing investment efficiency.

Key words: public hospital, public-private partnership (PPP) project, financing, evolutionary game, simulation analysis

摘要： 随着医疗改革的不断深化，公立医院仅依赖政府的财政支持已难以维持其运营与发展，亟须拓展新的资金来源与投资方式。PPP项目通过引入社会资本，为公立医疗机构项目建设提供了可行的资金解决方案。本文基于有限理性假设，构建了政府、社会资本方与公立医院三方演化相位图及博弈模型，对各参与主体的策略选择进行分析；同时通过数值仿真，深入考察了不同初始条件下三方的策略选择以及关键参数变化对演化结果的影响。研究结论可为提升公立医院建设管理水平、优化公共服务质量及提高投资效益提供理论参考。

关键词: 公立医院, PPP项目, 融资, 演化博弈, 仿真分析