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New Technology Shock, Industry Evolution and Public Policy Choice: the Case of New Energy Vehicle
2015, 24 (3):
321-332.
doi: F 426
With growing constraints on resources and environments, strategic emerging industries are regarded as a key to the plan of future industries by governments. With the case of new energy car, we extend the N-W model and history friendly model, and characterize the old and new technology paradigms via product performance, sale price and consumer expenditure, and construct the market selection mechanism with business decision, consumer choice and market competition. Using system simulation, we simulate the car industry evolution process under the new technology shock, and study the support effect of public policy for new energy car companies. The results show that, when traditional cars enter the market first, they can become the market leader with the advantages of product performance and sale price, only a small part of the new energy car companies can survive in the market, but the profit level and market share are very limited; consumer subsidies help reduce the price threshold of new energy car and stimulate the purchase of new energy car in the short term, and the effect of policy is responsive; infrastructure construction through improved consumer satisfaction of subsequent use to expand the scale of demand, although the effect being relatively slow, enhances the competitiveness of new energy car companies fundamentally.
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