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28 September 2022, Volume 31 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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System Dynamic-Based Risk Analysis of Transportation Disruption in Transnational Supply Chain in Different Multimodal Transportation Modes: A Case Study of FMCG Food Supply Chain LAI Xinfeng, WANG Xin, CHEN Zhixiang 2022, 31 (5):  825-839.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.001 Abstract ( )   PDF (17226KB) ( )   Based on the background of a multinational fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) food company, this paper establishes a two-level system dynamics model of multinational FMCG food supply chain, and analyzes the risk of transportation disruption by simulation. A new perspective of risk management strategy based on different management objectives is proposed. It is found that under the multimodal transportation mode of “air transportation→sea transportation→road transportation”, the priority order is the road transportation stage>sea transportation stage>air transportation stage when the company’s target is to reduce the overdue quantity, while the priority order is the road transportation stage>air transportation stage>sea transportation stage when the company’s target is to reduce the market loss. The dominant strategy is to give priority to the road transportation stage when the company has two targets at the same time. In the multimodal transportation mode of “road transportation→sea transportation→air transportation”, the priority order in the three transportation stages has changed. The company no longer has a dominant strategy, but there is an inferior strategy. The risk of raw material expiration caused by the transportation disruption in the later transportation stage is always higher than that in the earlier transportation stage. Different target-oriented companies need to be alert to different mixed disruptions and reduce the probability of mixed disruptions. The same transportation disruption in different multimodal transportation modes will lead to different risk levels. Related Articles

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Incentive Decision of Government-EnterpriseJoint Reserve of Emergency Supplies LI Sheng, , FENG Jingchun, , WU Kaili, , ZHANG Ke, 2022, 31 (5):  840-850.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.002 Abstract ( )   PDF (1527KB) ( )   A joint reserve of emergency supplies by the government and the enterprise can effectively alleviate the problem of insufficient emergency supply reserves. Additionally, the complementary advantages of a storage supplier can help improve emergency materials reserves. To encourage enterprises to actively participate in emergency supply reserves, this paper designs a cooperative relationship based on the government-enterprise principal-agent relationship and develops an incentive model. Furthermore, it analyzes decision-making strategies of the government and enterprises for decentralized and flexible cooperation with suppliers, performs parameter sensitivity and numerical analyses, and discusses the influence of key variables on optimal decision-making and management of reserves. The results show that it is difficult to achieve optimal cooperation among proxy storage suppliers based on pure reserve revenue sharing. However, establishing reasonable flexible cooperation can simultaneously enhance cooperative relationships between government, enterprise, and suppliers, and better motivate suppliers to participate. Related Articles

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Optimal Ordering and Financing Decisions for Overconfident Retailer LUO Jianwen, YU Mingqian, WANG Yang 2022, 31 (5):  851-860.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.003 Abstract ( )   PDF (3665KB) ( )   Retailers' overconfidence on market demand is mainly reflected in two aspects: over-expectation of market demand and overestimation of market demand forecast accuracy, which will lead to deviations in their operational decisions compared with decisions when they are completely rational. This paper studies the optimal ordering decision problem of overconfident retailer by constructing a cognitive model reflecting two kinds of overconfidence, which improves the cognitive model that normally considers the overconfidence in the accuracy of market demand prediction in related existing research. Based on the improved model, it obtains the optimal ordering decision for overconfident retailer with no capital constraints and with capital constraints alleviated by bank financing. The results show that the overconfident retailer’s optimal order quantity is larger than that of a rational one when he has sufficient fund and the expected market demand is relatively high. However, the optimal expected profit will be decreasing with retailer’s overconfidence preference. The conclusions will be opposite when the expected market demand is relatively small. The risk-averse bank’s loan decision is affected by the retailer’s initial capital level. The capital-constrained retailer’s optimal order quantity is related to his overconfidence preference, interest rate as well as his initial capital level. Related Articles

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Risk Diagnosis and Prediction of Mega-Project Waste Dump Based on Fault Tree and Bayesian Network Integration LI Yulong, HOU Xiangyu 2022, 31 (5):  861-874.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.004 Abstract ( )   PDF (2773KB) ( )   With the construction of a country with a strong transportation network, a large number of tunnels have to be built and tunnel slag has to be tackled in the waste dump in the construction of an increasing number of major linear infrastructure projects such as roads and railways across the western region. Under the joint influence of natural environment and human activities, many large-scale waste dumps located at complex and dangerous environment areas pose a great threat to soil and water conservation, ecological environment, life and property, due to potential risks of collapse, landslide and debris flow. From a system perspective, a conceptual framework of waste dump system risk analysis is constructed. Then, based on the life cycle stages of waste dump system, the logical chain of constructing fault tree waste on dump system is proposed with the risk causing management behavior and natural environmental factors. After that, by setting logical relationship transformation rules, the fault tree is transformed into a Bayesian network structure, and the expert evaluation method is introduced to determine the conditional probability between Bayesian network nodes for diagnosing and predicting the system risk of mega-project waste dump. Finally, the proposed modeling work at the integration of fault tree and Bayesian network is illustrated with an example of a waste dump, showing how to support the risk management of mega-project waste dump under complex and dangerous environmental conditions. Related Articles

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Location Optimization Portfolio of VTS Radar and Shoreside Oil Spill Detection Radar HUANG Chuan, LV Jing, GENG Zhixin, ZHU Xuebin 2022, 31 (5):  875-884.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.005 Abstract ( )   PDF (6246KB) ( )   Considering obstacle occlusion and radar transmission attenuation in the environment, to solve the portfolio location optimization problem of the vessel traffic service (VTS) radar and the shoreside oil spill detection radar, a method to investigate obstacle occlusion in three-dimensional space based on the spatial geometry method is proposed, an attenuation function is introduced for radar attenuation evaluation, and a multi-objective location optimization model is established with the objectives of minimizing the total construction cost and maximizing water area coverage. An adaptive chaotic multi-objective particle swarm algorithm is designed according to the characteristics of the problem. The initial solutions are generated when the location constraints are satisfied to improve the solution speed of the algorithm. The chaos mechanism and the spiral search mechanism of the moth flame algorithm are introduced to improve the updating strategies of the particle speed and location to enhance the local and global search capability of the algorithm. Then, the effectiveness of the judgment method and model proposed in this paper is verified by numerical examples. The research results not only deepen and expand the research related to VTS radar selection and oil spill detection radar location problem, but also provide a theoretical basis for the maritime authorities when selecting locations for VTS radar stations and oil spill detection radar. Related Articles

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An Order Identification Method of Organizational System Change Based on Multi-Order Parameter Coordination WEN Xin, ZHANG Lei 2022, 31 (5):  885-892.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.006 Abstract ( )   PDF (1961KB) ( )   The effective identification of the order of change has always been an important topic for monitoring and regulation of the development of organizational systems. In view of the leading role of order parameters in the process of organizational system change, based on the principle of multi-order parameter identification, the coordination degree, order degree, and effectiveness degree were proposed as the key dimensions of organizational system change order identification. The results show that the degree of coordination reflects the cooperation support among the elements of the organizational system, the degree of order reflects the order of the overall change of the organizational system, and the degree of effectiveness explains the effect of the organizational system reform. Based on the result of multi-order parameter identification, the measurement method, criterion, and adjustment strategy of three dimensions are proposed. Finally, the scientific validity of the proposed method was verified by an example. Related Articles

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Influencing Factors of Continuance Use Intention of Mobile Health Based on Meta Analysis LI Yi, LIU Renjing 2022, 31 (5):  893-909.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.007 Abstract ( )   PDF (1398KB) ( )   Based on 30 related Chinese and foreign literatures, this paper developed a comprehensive research framework including individual perception factors and individual characteristics based on the information continuance (ECM-IS) model and used the meta-analysis method to examine the factors affecting the continuance use intention of mobile health service users, and the moderating effects of the national economy development. The results indicate that the relationships between variables in the ECM-IS model have been verified in explaining the continuance use intention of mobile health users. Both the individual perception factor and the individual characteristic factor have a positive influence to the continuance use intention of users. The moderator analysis confirms that the difference in economic development of different countries have specific moderating effects on the continuance use of mobile health services. These conclusions may provide theoretical reference for future research and practice. Related Articles

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Consumers’ Personal Information Protection and Competition Between Local and Foreign-Funded Enterprises BAO Lei, JUAN Zhiru, DU Chunming 2022, 31 (5):  910-919.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.008 Abstract ( )   PDF (1014KB) ( )   In the era of big data, many foreign-funded enterprises and local enterprises have the technical capacity to collect and make use of the personal information of consumers. A duopoly game model is established to describe the fact that both foreign-funded enterprises and local enterprises may make personalized pricing based on consumer personal information they collected, and to investigate the impact of personal information protection on the competition between local enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises and its welfare effects. The results show that consumer surplus falls into the lowest when information collection is forbidden for all enterprises, and consumer surplus reaches the highest when there is no information protection. Enterprise that unilaterally collects consumer personal information will obtain the highest profit, but social welfare is the worst if the foreign enterprise unilaterally collects information, and it reaches the best if the local enterprise unilaterally collects information. Industry self-regulation can become a means to protect personal information only if violation of self-regulation agreements have to confront with certain punishments, but, industry self-regulation will lead to an inefficient equilibrium. This research may provide some reference for government departments to formulate consumer personal information protection policies and to regulate multinational enterprises on collecting and using personal information. Related Articles

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Government Talents Policy, Human Capital, and Regional Innovation XUE Chujiang, XIE Fuji 2022, 31 (5):  920-930.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.009 Abstract ( )   PDF (1128KB) ( )   The government talents policy is an important form of promoting regional innovation activities in addition to its fiscal and taxation arrangements. Based on theoretical analysis and the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2017, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of government talents policy on regional innovation efficiency and innovation output by using the stepwise regression method. The results show that the government talents policy can directly improve the efficiency and output of regional innovation, and it can also indirectly improve the efficiency and output of regional innovation by changing the stock and structure of regional human capital. Moreover, it is better for the government to improve regional innovation efficiency and innovation output by changing the regional human capital stock than by changing the regional human capital structure. However, there is a Williamson spatial clustering effect on the influence of government talents policy on regional innovation, and the influence of government talents policy on regional innovation will be greatly reduced after it reaches a certain degree. Therefore, local governments should fully understand the situation of regional social and economic development and human capital and choose the appropriate direction of talents policy and the appropriate degree of effort. Related Articles

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Environmental Regulation and Vertical Integration: Empirical Evidence from China LI Shuzhen, ZHANG Feng 2022, 31 (5):  931-940.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.010 Abstract ( )   PDF (985KB) ( )   Based on the analysis of the impact of environmental policies on enterprises and the vertical integration motivation of enterprises, this paper employs the data of listed companies and China’s national economic input-output to calculate the vertical integration index of enterprises and applies the difference-in-difference (DID) model to test whether there is a significant change in the average level of vertical integration of a certain industry before and after the implementation of environmental policies in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. The main conclusion is that environmental regulation promotes the vertical integration of enterprises. In particular, environmental regulation has a positive effect on the vertical integration of non-state-owned enterprises and those in the western region of China while it has no significant impact on state-owned enterprises and those in the central and eastern regions. This paper has certain reference for the government in formulating environmental policies for specific industries according to the chain characteristics and for enterprises in respond to environmental policies in advance and appropriately apply vertical integration strategies. Related Articles

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Dynamic Control of Quality Improvement and Process Innovation of an Enterprise Under the Influence of Consumer Reference Quality and Reference Price WANG Xinping, ZHANG Cheng 2022, 31 (5):  941-953.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.011 Abstract ( )   PDF (1417KB) ( )   To explore the optimal control of product quality improvement and process innovation in a monopoly enterprise, considering the influence of reference quality and reference price on consumer demand, a dynamic control model under the double reference effects is established, and the steady-state equilibrium and investment strategy is analyzed. The results show that under the condition of enterprise profit maximization, there exist admissible parameter constellations such that the system is a saddle point equilibrium. The steady-state investment of the enterprise is affected by product quality, marginal production cost, reference quality, and reference price. With the increase of the reference quality, the instantaneous investment rate of the enterprise in quality improvement increases while that in process innovation decreases. The two instantaneous investment rates decrease with the increase of the reference price, and the portfolio with the same symbol is complementary. The enterprise enhances consumer demand and enterprise competitiveness through the choice of quality and innovation investment strategy. Related Articles

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Influence of University-Industry Collaboration Climate on Research Performance of Researchers in Universities: The Mediating Effect of Technological Capability ZHANG Ben, WANG Hongqi, WANG Xiaohong 2022, 31 (5):  954-963.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.012 Abstract ( )   PDF (1003KB) ( )   From a multi-hierarchy perspective, based on the data of 987 researchers from Harbin Institute of Technology, and using the hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) method and software, this paper studies the influence of university-industry collaboration climate of the organizational level on the research performance of researchers and the mediating effect of technological capability. The results show that the relationship between the organizational level of university-industry collaboration climate and the research performance of researchers is in an inverted-U shape. In addition, there is a significant positive correlation between researchers’ technological capability and research performance. Moreover, from a multi-hierarchy perspective, the relationship between university-industry collaboration climate and technological capability is in an inverted-U shape. Furthermore, technological capability of researchers has a partly mediating effect. These findings reveal the specific mechanism that university-industry collaboration climate affects the research performance of researchers, enriches the results on the relationship between university-industry collaboration and research performance, and provides a theoretical basis and practical reference for the government and universities to make scientific and rational science and technology management policy. Related Articles

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A Portfolio Strategy of Energy Industry Chain Based on Mean-MF-X-DMA CHEN Hongtao, ZAN Qiuyu, WANG Feng, YE Xin 2022, 31 (5):  964-975.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.013 Abstract ( )   PDF (4373KB) ( )   The international energy financial market is a complex nonlinear system. Extreme climate, geopolitical and financial risks have a profound impact on energy investment activities. In order to optimize the distribution of China’s energy industry and foreign exchange energy asset allocation, an investment strategy is proposed based on fractal theory and the industrial chain theory. A mean-MF-X-DMA model is constructed in combination spwith the mean-variance model and the multifractal method. Ten stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) reflecting five links of energy industry chain are selected for analysis. The empirical test shows that there are obvious multifractal characteristics in each stock returns. Therefore, it is suitable to apply the fractal market theory for constructing portfolio strategies. Stock selection based on the industry chain theory can improve the stability and returns of portfolio. With the exception of scale 10, the portfolio strategy based on the Mean-MF-X-DMA model performs better than the traditional portfolio model, with higher returns, Sharpe ratio, Jensen index, Treynor ratio and β coefficient. Besides, systemic risk has less impact on this portfolio strategy than the traditional portfolio strategy. Related Articles

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Heterogeneous Expectation or Emotional Alienation? A New View on the Explanation of IPO High Underpricing ZHANG Xiaocheng, TAN Linlin 2022, 31 (5):  976-987.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.014 Abstract ( )   PDF (3914KB) ( )   According to the theory of behavioral finance, both the investors’ heterogeneous expectations and emotional alienation have a great impact on initial public offering (IPO) underpricing. However, the joint effect of the two on IPO underpricing has yet to be studied. This paper, using the behavioral finance theory, constructs an IPO underpricing model to explore this issue and conducts a comparative analysis thereafter. It is found that both the heterogeneous expectations and emotional alienation are positively correlated with IPO underpricing. Specifically, positive (resp. negative) heterogeneous expectations and positive (resp. negative) emotional alienation would increase (resp. reduce) IPO underpricing. Compared with the case where either heterogeneous expectation or emotional alienation exists, positive heterogeneous expectations or emotional alienation would increase IPO underpricing and negative heterogeneous expectations or emotional alienation would reduce IPO underpricing when both of them exist. Moreover, the degree of impact on IPO underpricing is determined by the quantitative structure of institutional and retail investors. It is also found that IPO underpricing is negatively correlated with the number of institutional investors on the primary market as well as their expectations about new listings, and positively correlated with the expectations of institutional and retail investors about new listings and the issuance scale on the secondary market. These findings not only extend the theory of IPO underpricing from the perspective of behavioral finance, but also provide new insights in explaining high IPO underpricing. Related Articles

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Servitization of Manufacturing，Front and Back-End Digitalization，and Enterprise Performance PAN Rongrong, LUO Jianqiang, YANG Zichao 2022, 31 (5):  988-999.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.015 Abstract ( )   PDF (3403KB) ( )   The value creation space of manufacturers is constantly squeezed under the product-dominant logic, and servitization and digitalization have become important means to promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturers. By referring to the front-end and back-end theory, digitalization is divided into customer-oriented front-end digitalization of and manufacturing-supported back-end digitalization. The data from China’slisted manufacturing enterprises are collected for empirical analysis, and the internal influence mechanism between servitization of manufacturing, front-end and back-end digitalization，and enterprise performance is revealed. The results show that servitization of manufacturing contributes to the improvement of performance, and there is no service paradox in China’s manufacturing industry. Both front-end and back-end digitalization can improve enterprise performance, and positively moderate the relationship between servitization and performance. Further analysis indicates that front-end digitalization can not only expand the service content and improve the service quality but also feed back-end digitalization. Back-end digitalization empowers product manufacturing and reduces the enterprise’s operating cost. There are differences in the development of servitization, front-end and back-end digitalization of manufacturing enterprises in the eastern and central and western regions, and servitization and customer-oriented front-end digitalization in the eastern region is in a leading position. On the other hand, the manufacturing-oriented back-end digitalization development momentum is stronger in the central and western regions, but the development of servitization is slightly weak. This paper enriches the relevant theoretical achievements of servitization and digitalization, and provides guidance for the service transformation and upgrading of digital enabld manufacturing enterprises. Related Articles

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Construction Pursues the Great? Corporate Reputation and Market Rumors: Based on Chinese A-Share Listed Companies FAN Xiaomin, LI Yuanxu, YOU Jiaxing 2022, 31 (5):  1000-1017.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.016 Abstract ( )   PDF (1132KB) ( )   Corporate reputation has been the focus of academics and practice. It is the overall perception of a corporate from the public. Numerous studies have confirmed that a good reputation will bring about many benefits. Nevertheless, a high reputation will raise the expectation of the society, while high-reputation companies will face severe penalties when they violate public expectations. Based on manually collected 3845 rumors of China’s A-Share Listed Companies from 2007 to 2019, this paper investigated the effect of corporate reputation on the stock reaction generated by market rumors and clarification announcements. The results indicate that when market rumors are disseminated, high-reputation companies suffer more from negative rumors and benefit less from positive rumors than low-reputation companies. High-reputation companies will be more willing to use strong denial towards negative rumors while less willing towards positive rumors. After clarification, the influence of negative rumors on high-reputation companies remains stronger, and the influence of positive rumors on high-reputation companies remains weaker. Further analyses show that negative rumors from new media will do more harm to high-reputation companies, and high-reputation companies can achieve a better clarification effect by using strong denial to negative rumors and worse clarification effect when lagging more time to make clarifications. Related Articles

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Capital Market Liberalization and Enterprise Innovation Quality Based on the Perspective of “Innovation Trap”of Chinese Enterprises Emphasizing Quantity over Quality LV Xiaojun, HU Huaxia, WANG Hongjian 2022, 31 (5):  1018-1027.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2022.05.017 Abstract ( )   PDF (1168KB) ( )   Based on the quasi-natural experiment of “Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect” in China’s capital market, it is of great academic value and policy significance to study whether “capital market liberalization” can help Chinese enterprises break the “innovation trap” of emphasizing quantity over quality by combining different competition policies. It is found that capital market liberalization significantly contributes to the innovation quality of enterprises, as evidenced by the gradual shift of patent structure to high-quality invention patents and the increase of patent citation rate, indicating that capital market liberalization can indeed significantly break the “innovation trap” of Chinese enterprises that emphasize quantity over quality. The above findings still hold after a series of robustness tests. The heterogeneity test shows that the promotion of capital market liberalization to innovation quality is more significant in the sample groups of competitive industries, foreign institutions with higher shareholding ratios, greater financing constraints, and lower risk-taking levels. This paper confirms the positive significance of capital market liberalization and anti-monopoly policy from the perspective of “China’s innovation trap”, and provides theoretical support for further improving the degree of capital market liberalization and “anti-monopoly policy”. Related Articles