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    29 July 2020, Volume 29 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for DC Pension with Salary Risk and Premium Refund Clauses in Heston Model
    LI Fangchao, ZHANG Chengke, ZHU Huainian
    2020, 29 (4):  617-628.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.001
    Abstract ( )   PDF (7502KB) ( )  

    DC (defined contribution) pension investors can usually invest premiums in three assets in the financial market: risk-free assets, risky assets, and inflation-linked bonds. In this paper, under the mean-variance criterion, in order to fully consider the market risk factors and protect the interests of the insured, the inflation risk, volatility risk, salary risk, and premium refund clause are introduced into the investment model. Besides, by using the game theory and the stochastic optimal control technique, the explicit solutions to the optimal time-consistent investment strategy and the efficient frontier are obtained by solving an extended HJB equation. Moreover, the optimal investment strategy in the two cases with and without the premium refund clause is compared by numerical analysis. Furthermore, the effect of some main parameters on the optimal investment strategy and efficient frontier is analyzed, and economic interpretations are given.

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    Credit Loan Evaluation Model Based on Natural Language Processing and Deep Learning
    ZHAO Xuefeng, WU Weiwei, SHI Huining
    2020, 29 (4):  629-638.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.002
    Abstract ( )   PDF (4096KB) ( )  

    In view of the fact that current credit evaluation model has the characteristics of complex preprocessing, subjective factors interference, and low accuracy, a novel model is proposed, which first constructs text data of continuous credit characteristics, and uses the Word2Vec algorithm for word vectorization, and then evaluates by connecting convolutional neural network(CNN) with word embedding layer. Besides, an empirical analysis is conducted through the Keras framework and based on the personal credit data of the bank from 2008 to 2018. The results show that the overall evaluation accuracy of the novel model is as high as 91.7%. Missing features can be evaluated directly, i.e., missing features need not processed, with an accuracy rate of 85.8%. The novel model transforms discrete credit features into continuous text, which reduces the complexity of feature preprocessing. The combination of Word2Vec and natural language processing achieves direct assessment of missing credit features. The excellent feature analysis capabilities based on CNN improves the robustness of the credit evaluation model, improves some of the problems, and avoids subjective factors in the current credit evaluation model.

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     Application of Interest Derivatives and Interest Risk Exposure of Chinese Commercial Banks
    LIU Zhiyang, CAO Shuling
    2020, 29 (4):  639-645.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.003
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1314KB) ( )  

    Since China has not yet experienced a banking crisis, the measurement of the risk of the banking system has poses a challenge. This paper uses the KMV model to calculate the default probability of each listed commercial bank as the indicator of systemic risk. Then, this probability is used to estimate the interest risk exposure to 1-year, 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year interest rate, based on which, a study is conducted on whether or not Chinese listed commercial banks have lowered their interest risk exposure when using interest derivatives. It is found that, as the nominal value of interest derivatives increases, the interest risk exposure decreases. However, the performance of these banks varies. The state-owned commercial banks behave relatively worse than joint-stock commercial banks.

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    CSR,Purchase Intention and Behavior: Moderated Mediation Role of Proactive Personality and Perceived Effectiveness
    LONG Xianyi, DENG Xinming, YANG Saifang, MUNKHBAYAR Khishigdelger
    2020, 29 (4):  646-656.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.004
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1033KB) ( )  

    It is suggested that intention is a good predictor on behavior, but previous studies of corporate social responsibility (CSR) indicate that there is a huge gap between consumers’ purchase intention and their purchase behaviors. This paper intends to investigate the effect of CSR on consumers’ purchase behaviors through their purchase intention, as well as boundaries on their purchase intention-behavior gap. A scene-questionnaire survey including CSR, purchase intention, purchase behavior, proactive personality and perceived effectiveness was conducted to collect data and test this framework. The results show that  consumers’ purchase intention plays a partial mediation role in the relationship between CSR and their purchase behaviors. Besides, there is a large gap between consumers’ purchase intention and behaviors, of which 25% of their purchase intention and 20% of their purchase behaviors could be explained by CSR. Moreover, there is a greater indirect effect of consumers’ purchase intention in situations of high proactive personality or high perceived effectiveness, which can reduce the intention-behavior gap.

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    Effects of Government Environmental Subsidy on Supply Chain Performance Considering Consumer Environmental Innovational Preferences Based on the Perspective of Competition Between Local Manufacturer and FDI Manufacturer
    JIN Jiyao, DU Jianguo, JIN Shuai, GAO Peng
    2020, 29 (4):  657-667.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.005
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2798KB) ( )  

    In order to study the effects of government environmental subsidy on the performance of green supply chain, this paper, assuming that consumers have green preferences, establishes and solves three subsidy modes (no subsidy (NSC), subsidy to the local manufacturer (SCX), and subsidy to the FDI manufacturer (SCY)). Comparative studies and a numerical simulation show that government environmental subsidy has no fundamental difference in terms of the effect on the manufacturers. Government environmental subsidy can increase the green degree and demand of the product affected by the subsidy directly while it can be counterproductive to another product regardless of the ownership of the enterprise. Subsidies to FDI firms with lower green manufacturing costs can have more obvious spillover and crowding-out effects than subsidies to local firms with higher green manufacturing costs. The degree of competition between two manufacturers could amplify the effect of the above government environmental subsidy, but could not change it. The manufacturer’s profit is the highest in the direct subsidy mode and lowest when the government subsidizes the competitor. As far as retailer and the whole supply chain are concerned, their profits are highest in the SCY mode, followed by the SCX mode, and government subsidy have positive effects on channel profits of supply chain only when the intensity of subsidy is smaller.

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    Online Accessibility, Perceived Luxury Value, and Luxury Products Consumption
    SHAN Juan, CUI Chenhong
    2020, 29 (4):  668-675.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.006
    Abstract ( )   PDF (982KB) ( )  

    Based on the product scarcity theory and the luxury perceived value theory, this paper constructs a theoretical model of the relationship between online availability and perceived value of luxury goods and purchase intention. The empirical results show that online accessibility has a significant negative influence on the conspicuous value and unique value of the perceived value of luxury goods, but has no significant influence on perceived quality, hedonic value, and self-identity value. In addition, perceived conspicuous value and unique value have a mediation effect on online accessibility and purchase intention.

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    Mode and Performance of Cross-Border Technology Acquisition Based on Qualitative Comparative Analysis
    ZHAI Yuming, WANG Zhen, YIN Mengmeng, WANG Chunhua
    2020, 29 (4):  676-683.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.007
    Abstract ( )   PDF (948KB) ( )  

    By using the method of clear set qualitative comparative analysis, 58 samples of cross-border technology acquisition are analyzed, and the influence of technological capability of Chinese enterprises, technological similarity with target enterprises, cultural distance, integration experience and integration degree on innovation performance of cross-border technology acquisition is studied. Four successful modes of cross-border technology acquisition of Chinese enterprises are obtained, which are the strength driven mode, the steady progress mode, the developing strengths and avoiding weaknesses mode, and the risk hedging mode. The results show that when the acquisition mode and integration strategy are reasonably selected, enterprises with different technological capabilities can have a better innovation performance in cross-border acquisition activities.

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    Efficiency Measurement and Inefficiency Analysis of Public Transportation
    LI Jinpei, XU Liqun, YAO Di
    2020, 29 (4):  684-697.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.008
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1413KB) ( )  

    Under the VRS assumption, the efficiencies of public transportation with and without considerations of environmental factors in central cities of China from 2010 to 2016 are measured based on the SBM-undesirable model and weighted SBM model, respectively. Moreover, the contributions of the inputs and outputs to inefficiencies are analyzed based on the decompositions of inefficiencies. The research results show that there is a big difference between the efficiency of public transportation with and without consideration of environmental factors, where the average efficiency of public transportation without consideration of environmental factors is underestimated. Of all the inputs and outputs, the number of employees, the number of passengers, and air pollutant hydrocarbon (HC) are the most important sources of the inefficiency considering environmental factors from the aspects of input, desirable and undesirable output, respectively. The contribution of the various inputs and outputs factors to public transportation inefficiency differs in different regions, but no matter whether or not environmental factors are considered, the number of passengers is the expected output element with the largest contribution to public transportation inefficiency.

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    Dynamic Optimal Control of Product and Process Innovation of a Company in a Monopoly Market with Network Externality
    LI Shoude, DING Yishan
    2020, 29 (4):  698-710.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.009
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1094KB) ( )  

    The problem of optimal control of product innovation (improving product quality) and process innovation (reducing marginal production costs) of a monopoly company producing a single product in a continuous time is discussed, and a dynamic control model under network externality conditions is established to discuss the stable equilibrium of the system and investment strategy issues related. The result shows that there exists a unique saddle equilibrium. When the sign of the change rate of investment in product innovation and process innovation is the same (opposite), the two investments are complementary (alternative). When the fixed intensity of network externality decreases, the steady-state product innovation and process innovation investment of the company increases as the product quality improves, and as the marginal production cost of the product decreases; when product quality and marginal production cost change around the steady state, the product innovation and process innovation investment are complementary. In addition, the investment in both product innovation and process innovation under the condition of maximizing social welfare is higher than the corresponding investment under the condition of maximizing the profits of the company. Although the product price under the condition of maximizing social welfare is determined by the company, the product price under this condition is still higher than that under the condition of maximizing the profit of the company.

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    Effect of Emergency on Egress Time in a Tunnel
    LIAO Can, GUO Haixiang, TANG Jian, ZHU Kejun
    2020, 29 (4):  711-720.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.010
    Abstract ( )   PDF (6358KB) ( )  

    While current studies paid little attention to effects of different types of emergencies on egress time, this paper classified emergencies into static ones and dynamic ones according to its types, and established a pedestrian flow model based on multi-agent simulation. In the model, the tunnel is divided into cells, with each pedestrian in a cell receiving a certain utility depending on the distance to the exit and the number of pedestrians in the cell. Then, each pedestrian uses the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium to search for the target cell with the maximum expected utility, takes collision avoidance action before moving into the target cell and then searches for the next target cell until he or she exits the tunnel. The simulation model is calibrated and validated from a real tunnel and is found to have a good consistency. Finally, based on the experimental data collected from different scenarios, it is concluded that close attention should be paid to the central part of the tunnel before emergencies occur, while after emergencies have occurred, pedestrians should be guided to react in a coordinated way, which is beneficial to the management of pedestrians in tunnels or some other venues.

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    Coal Mine Group Symbiotic System: Mechanism and Optimization Path of Safety Symbiosis
    HAN Shuai, CHEN Hong, LONG Ruyin
    2020, 29 (4):  721-732.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.011
    Abstract ( )   PDF (10200KB) ( )  

    The complexity and interactive of activities between the subjects in the coal mine production system determines that the “group” is the key subject to protect safety production in coal mines in working order. This paper introduced the symbiosis theory to study the groups in safety management in coal mines. The peer groups and hierarchy groups were considered further with the characteristic parameter of the symbiosis theory, such as the symbiotic environment, symbiotic interface, and symbiotic degree and so on, to analyze the interaction mechanism between both symbionts. At the same time, the safety symbiotic model of coal mine groups was built combining the correlation function of the symbiosis force and competitive force, while the symbiotic optimization path was obtained through the stability analysis of symbiosis function (symbiotic state/safety order: mutual harm/danger zone-strong partial benefit/risk area-weak partial benefit /rehabilitation area-mutually benefit/sub health area-strong mutually benefit/health area). Based on the field research, the symbiotic initial value of current coal mine groups was obtained. MATLAB numerical analysis indicate that at present, both the peer groups and the hierarchy groups do not reach the state of good mutualism while the hierarchy groups is in a commensalism status under the current situation. Moreover, when the symbiotic degree of both symbiotic units is improved simultaneously, their overall safety level tends to be optimized. Apart from that, when the symbiosis environment and symbiosis interface are improved, and the competitiveness is reduced, the evolution of overall safety level tends to be more optimized. This paper offers a new perspective for coal mine safety management from the symbiotic relationship of groups and provides reference for safety management in other areas.

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    Government-Enterprise Joint Reserve Model of Emergency Materials Based on Real Option Contract#br#
    PANG Haiyun, YE Yong
    2020, 29 (4):  733-741.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.012
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1284KB) ( )  

    According to the practical needs of emergency management in China, this paper studies the joint reserve mode between government and enterprises of emergency materials based on the real option contract. Besides, according to the characteristics of emergency materials suitable for the real option contract, it builds the expected cost function of the government and the expected profit function of enterprises, and proposes the government-enterprise joint reserve model of emergency materials. In addition, it analyzes and compares the optimal reserve problem with or without option cooperation contract and reveals the key factors that influence the government reserve decision in different reserve modes. In addition, based on the discussion the constraints of cooperation feasibility, it studies the value range of option price and execution price, analyzes the impact of the unit inventory cost ratio between government and enterprise and the probability of emergencies on the reserve decision and cooperation feasibility, using a numerical example. The research shows that the real option contract between government and enterprises can effectively improve the support ability of the emergency system and reduce the unit emergency support cost of the government, increase the profits of enterprises, and achieve a win-win cooperation.

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    Threshold Reward Mechanism Based on Consumer Sharing Behavior in Social Marketing #br#

    JIANG Fenfen, MEI Shu’e, ZHONG Weijun
    2020, 29 (4):  742-751.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.013
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1003KB) ( )  

    In order to effectively implement social marketing strategies by making full use of the informative effect of consumer sharing behavior, firms regard the design of reward mechanism for consumers sharing behavior as one of the important marketing decisions. Based on the analysis of the behavior norms of the firm, the sharer, and the receivers (the sharer’s close friends and acquaintances) under the threshold reward mechanism, an optimization decision model is built considering these three agents to explore the optimal reward structure. The results indicate that the incentive effect of firm-offered-reward on consumers conforms to the law of diminishing marginal utility. On the whole, with the improvement of the sharer’s social influence, the firm tends to adopt the reward structure with a high threshold and high reward. However, with the law of diminishing marginal utility, the firm is able to get higher returns actually by only seeking the output resulting from the browsing behavior of sharer’s close friends under certain conditions.

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    Influence of Perceived Appraisal Purposes on Individual Information Application
    ZHOU Xiaolan , ZHAO Peng , ZHUANG Yumei
    2020, 29 (4):  752-761.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.014
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1237KB) ( )  

    This paper mainly focus on the influence and interaction of individual-based performance appraisals on individual information attitude and information behavior. Empirical research demonstrates that there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between perceived evaluative purpose (PEP) of performance appraisal and individual information openness (IO). Perceived developmental purpose (PDP) has a positive effect on IO. As PDP increases, the original positive correlation in the inverted U-shaped relation between the two will be significantly strengthened, and the original negative correlation will be significantly buffered and almost disappear. PEP, PDP, and IO have a positive effect on individual information application (IA) while IO has a partial mediation effect on both PEP-IA and PDP-IA.

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    Construction and Mechanisms of Exogenous Rural E-Commerce Ecosystem Based on the Rural Case of Taobao
    LU Baozhou, TAN Caicai, WANG Fangfang
    2020, 29 (4):  762-771.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.015
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1157KB) ( )  

    This paper, taking the rural Taobao in Fushan, Shandong province as an example, analyzes the construction of the exogenous rural e-commerce ecosystem based on the empowerment theory. It is found that the local government and e-commerce platform companies are core participants in the construction of the exogenous rural e-commerce ecosystem, and the construction process of the ecosystem is the process by which core participants empower key participants. Structural empowerment, psychological empowerment, and resource empowerment respectively correspond to the three stages for the construction of the ecosystem. IT is the tool for core participants to empower. This paper not only opens up the process for the construction of the ecosystem, but also provides practical guidance for the development of rural e-commerce.

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    Optimal Strategies of Free Gift Cards in Retailer-Dominated Supply Chain #br#
    LI Yuefeng, PAN Jingming, TANG Xiaowo
    2020, 29 (4):  772-781.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.016
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1107KB) ( )  

    The fierce competition in the product market has enriched and deepened sales promotion. At the same time, free gift cards as an important promotional tool has recently been used and favored by many retailers. In this paper, the design of the optimal strategy of free gift cards for the retailer in retailer-dominated supply chain is studied. A decentralized supply chain is constructed including a single retailer and a single manufacturer, in which the retailer is a leader and the manufacturer is a follower. In this system, two Stackelberg-game models of supply chain with no gift cards and with gift cards are developed. By comparing the results of these two models, the optimal strategies of free gift cards for the supply chain are obtained. Further, the impacts of the parameters on the optimal strategies and relevant profits are discussed. It is shown that free gift cards promotion increases the expected profits of the retailer, the manufacturer, and the whole supply chain. When offering free gift cards, the retailer will increase the retail price and profit margin of promotion product, and the manufacturer will also increase the wholesale price. Moreover, when the maximal threshold value of gift cards from customer perception increases, the optimal gift cards value, the optimal profit margin, the optimal retail price, and the optimal wholesale price are increasing. When the average gross margin of redemption product increases, the optimal value of gift cards, the optimal profit margin, the optimal retail price, and the optimal wholesale price are increasing.

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    Misreporting Strategies and Coordination with Supplier’s Carbon Emission Reduction Investment Under Different Market Powers
    WU Kailan, LIU Mingwu, XU Maozeng
    2020, 29 (4):  782-793.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.017
    Abstract ( )   PDF (2773KB) ( )  

    Considering different market powers, this paper contributes to cost misreporting strategies and coordination in two-echelon low-carbon supply chains where there exists the problem that the supplier who invests in carbon emission reduction under the cap-and-trade policy may take advantage of his private cost information to increase his own profit, which damages the performances of the retailer and the whole supply chain. It is found that the supply chain dominance does have an influence on the profit distribution between the supply chain members, the whole supply chain performance, and the supplier’s optimal cost misreporting strategies. The supplier will not misreport his cost information when he himself is the supply chain leader but misreports cost information in the retailer-led supply chain to maximize his profit under certain conditions. A type of linear compensation-punishment mechanism with fixed emission reduction depending on the wholesale price is proposed to coordinate this asymmetric phenomenon. With appropriate contractual parameters, the coordination mechanism can achieve a perfect coordination of the low-carbon supply chain and distribute the supply chain profit between the supplier and retailer freely while it motivates the supplier to feedback true cost information. Finally, the effects of misreporting factors on the supplier and the retailer’s profits are validated and discussed through numerical analysis.

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    Manufacturer Encroachment in Closed-Loop Supply Chains
    ZHENG Benrong, JIN Liang, YANG Chao, YANG Jun
    2020, 29 (4):  794-805.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.018
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1294KB) ( )  

    In this paper, a closed-loop supply chain is considered which consists of a manufacturer and a retailer. By establishing closed-loop supply chain decision-making models with and without manufacturer encroachment under manufacturer-and retailer-collecting schemes, the manufacturer’s optimal channel entry strategy and its supply chain consequences are analyzed. The main findings demonstrate that the manufacturer introduces the direct channel if the marginal cost of the direct channel is lower than a threshold, and the channel entry always benefits the manufacturer and consumers but does no good to the retailer and environment. In addition, in the manufacturer-collecting scheme, there exists a threshold in direct channel cost, below which the channel entry is beneficial to the whole chain system; however, the channel entry always harms the channel system in the retailer-collecting scheme. Moreover, the manufacturer prefers to introduce direct channel in the manufacturer-collecting scheme, while the manufacturer’s channel entry decision hinges on the transfer price of the used product paid to the retailer in the retailer-collecting scheme. Finally, numerical examples are utilized to analyze the joint effects of the collecting schemes and manufacturer’s channel entry behavior on channel profits, consumer surplus, environment performance, and social welfare.

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    Design of a Dynamic Incentive Mechanism Considering Knowledge Sharing Behavior
    ZHANG Yanxia, DUAN Yongrui, ZHAO Xinfei
    2020, 29 (4):  806-815.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.019
    Abstract ( )   PDF (992KB) ( )  

    The incentive method used by companies can increase knowledge sharing between employees and therefore, increase creativity and output of the group. To promote knowledge sharing in groups, based on the principal and agent theory, a dynamic incentive mechanism considering knowledge sharing behavior was designed, including both physical and psychic incentive factors. Besides, the effect of the incentive mechanism was analyzed when main incentive factors changed. The study indicate that reducing knowledge sharing cost, adopting appropriate spiritual encouragement, and making use of performance-related pay can effectively increase employee’s willingness of knowledge sharing.

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    Impact of Viral Marketing Strategies on Loss-Averse Newsvendor Problem
    LI Feng, WEI Ying
    2020, 29 (4):  816-823.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.020
    Abstract ( )   PDF (1856KB) ( )  

    Empirical studies show that influences among consumers are quite different when potential consumers are making their purchase decision. However, heterogeneous influences were usually simplified as a binary variable in analytical models, which made the analysis results obviously inconsistent with the empirical data. Therefore, this paper, regarding the heterogeneous influences as a directed, weighted social network, formulated demand as the final results of viral marketing strategies in this directed, weighted social network. Besides, facing the stochastic demand, it calculated the optimal order quantity with loss-averse decision-maker. Moreover, in order to mimic the process of viral marketing on the social network, it introduced multi-agent based modeling and simulation, in which each consumer was modeled as an autonomous agent, whose purchasing decision was influenced by his or her neighbors. Furthermore, it described viral marketing as an adapted SIR model. Finally, based on the simulation data and analysis, it proposed suggestions on the impact of the source node for viral marketing strategies, loss-averse model on the optimal order quantity and the profit of the firm.

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    Personalized Book Recommendation Method for College Library Based on Shifts of Readers’ Preference
    HU Daiping, TANG Ming, XU Boyi
    2020, 29 (4):  824-829.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-2542.2020.04.021
    Abstract ( )   PDF (945KB) ( )  

    In this paper, a novel idea is proposed to observe the shifts of college readers’ reading preferences over time based on the records of readers’ borrowing behavior and the information of corresponding books. With the help of the characteristics of the bipartite network, a calculation method is proposed for measuring the characteristics of preference shift and combining it with traditional book recommendation as an object algorithm hybrid recommendation. At the same time, using the historical data of book borrowing from the library in Shanghai Jiao Tong University, the superiority of the calculation results of preference changes and the hybrid recommendation method combining preference changes are demonstrated, compared with the traditional recommendation method.

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