Abstract:  To fully utilize the project buffer as a risk absorption mechanism, this paper proposes a dynamic monitoring method that accounts for feeding path overflow. The proposed method divides the critical chain into phases based on feeding points and analyzes the impact of feeding buffer overflow on the critical chain during project execution. It determines the interference weight coefficient for the non-critical chain of each phase based on the consumption of the secondary project buffer caused by feeding buffer overflow. It then quantitatively allocates the project buffer across phases according to the proportion of critical chain duration and the network complexity at the feeding point. It establishes the staged rolling state of the buffer, and determines the phase dynamic rolling monitoring amount and the corresponding reference points. The experimental results show that the proposed method effectively uses the project buffer to absorb interference from feeding buffer overflow, reduces project duration and cost, and ensures project completion probability, thus improving buffer monitoring accuracy.

Key words: critical chain project management, feeding buffer overflow, project buffer, dynamic allocation, rolling monitoring

摘要： 为了充分发挥项目缓冲作为风险吸收机制的作用，提出了一种考虑接驳链路溢出的项目缓冲动态监控方法。该方法以接驳缓冲汇入处为节点，对关键链进行阶段划分，进而分析项目执行时接驳链路发生溢出时对关键链的影响。根据接驳链路溢出造成的二级项目缓冲消耗量，确定非关键链对汇入关键链活动的干扰权重系数。结合关键链阶段持续时间占比和汇入节点处的网络复杂度，对项目缓冲量进行阶段定量分配，以确定缓冲阶段式滚动状态下的动态监控量和相应的基准点。仿真实验显示，本文方法能够更充分地利用项目缓冲，对接驳链路缓冲溢出造成的干扰进行二次吸收，在确保项目完工概率的同时缩短项目工期和成本，克服了现有缓冲监控方式的不足，提高了缓冲监控的准确性。

关键词: 关键链项目管理, 接驳链路溢出, 项目缓冲, 动态分配, 滚动监控