Abstract:

To address the problem of uncertainty in decision information and the difficulty of complete rationality of decision-makers in emergency response decision-making, a novel approach to emergency response decision-making is proposed based on the prospect theory and probabilistic linguistic terms. First, the evaluation of decision-makers is represented as probabilistic linguistic terms, and a similarity measure of probabilistic linguistic terms based on Jensen-Shannon divergence is proposed. Then, the prospect theory, which can describe the mental behavior of decision-makers, is applied to the probabilistic linguistic environment, and a prospect decision matrix is constructed by combining the proposed similarity measure of probabilistic linguistic terms. Afterwards, a criterion weight model is constructed with the idea of deviation minimization to calculate the criterion weights, based on which, the overall prospect value of each alternative is obtained by combining the prospect decision matrix with the criterion weights, and the ranking of each alternative is obtained. Finally, a maritime accident case illustrates the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

Key words:

emergencies, emergency response decision-making, prospect theory, probabilistic linguistic terms, Jensen-Shannon divergence

摘要： 针对突发事件应急响应决策中决策信息存在不确定性以及决策者很难完全理性的问题，提出一种新的基于前景理论和概率语言术语的应急响应决策方法。首先，将决策者的评估表示为概率语言术语，提出了基于Jensen-Shannon散度的概率语言术语相似性度量。其次，将描述决策者心理行为的前景理论运用到概率语言环境中，并结合提出的概率语言术语相似性度量构建前景决策矩阵；进一步，借鉴偏差最小化的思想构建了决策标准权重模型，用以计算决策标准权重。在此基础上，结合前景决策矩阵及决策标准权重求得各个方案的综合前景值，并以此排序。最后，通过一个海上事故案例说明了提出方法的有效性和优越性。

关键词:

突发事件, 应急响应决策, 前景理论, 概率语言术语, Jensen-Shannon散度