Abstract: This paper attempts to integrate human capital mismatch into the analysis framework of human capital contribution rate to economic growth (hereinafter referred to as human capital contribution rate), and systematically measure and analyze the human capital mismatch index and human capital contribution rate of 30 sample provinces in China except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan from 2005 to 2018. It empirically tests the impact and effect of human capital mismatch on the contribution rate of human capital, and further discusses the regulatory role of industrial agglomeration in the above impact. The results show that the overall human capital mismatch in China tends to ease, but there is regional heterogeneity in the evolution trend. The eastern, central, and western regions are characterized by improvement, repeated fluctuation, and deterioration respectively. The mismatch of human capital has a significant negative effect on the contribution rate of human capital, and this effect still exists after distinguishing the two mismatch types of insufficient allocation and excessive allocation, but the negative effect of excessive allocation of human capital on the contribution rate of human capital is more obvious. Producer services and manufacturing producer services collaborative agglomeration have corrected the negative effect of human capital mismatch on human capital contribution rate to varying degrees, while manufacturing agglomeration strengthens the inhibitory effect of human capital mismatch on human capital contribution rate. This paper helps to enrich and improve the theory of factor allocation and economic growth in theory. The relevant problems and influence mechanism revealed provide rich policy implications for tapping China’s economic growth potential.

Key words: human capital mismatch, contribution rate of human capital, system measure, two step system GMM

摘要： 研究将人力资本错配纳入人力资本对经济增长贡献率（简称人力资本贡献率）分析框架，对2005~2018年中国除西藏及港澳台之外的30个样本省份的人力资本错配指数和人力资本贡献率进行系统测度及演进态势分析，实证检验了人力资本错配对人力资本贡献率的影响及效应，进一步讨论了产业集聚在上述影响中的调节作用。结果表明：中国整体人力资本错配趋于缓解，但演进态势存在地区异质性，东部、中部和西部地区分别呈现为趋于改善、反复波动、不断恶化的事实特征；人力资本错配对人力资本贡献率具有显著的负向效应，且区分配置不足和过度两种错配类型后，这一效应仍然存在，但人力资本配置过度对人力资本贡献率的负向影响更为明显；生产性服务业集聚和制造业-生产性服务业协同集聚均不同程度地矫正了人力资本错配对人力资本贡献率的负向效应，而制造业集聚会强化人力资本错配对人力资本贡献率的抑制作用。本研究有助于在学理上丰富和完善要素配置与经济增长理论，所揭示的相关问题及影响机制对于挖掘中国经济增长潜力提供了丰富的政策蕴含。

关键词: 人力资本错配, 人力资本贡献率, 系统测度, 两步系统GMM