Abstract:

At the beginning of 2020, the global outbreak of the COVID-19 had a substantial impact on China’s manufacturing sector, which in turn had an impact on the steady growth of the entire economy. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the security situation of the manufacturing industry to deal with manufacturing security risks. This paper innovatively proposes cross hierarchical data envelopment analysis (CH-DEA) and establishes the index framework for manufacturing security evaluation. The results indicate that from 2005 to 2020, the overall security situation of the manufacturing industry has improved, i.e., the ability of manufacturing industry to cope with emergencies and independent development is constantly improving. The examination of micro-obstacle factors reveals that the current barrier is the shrinkage of the industry scale, which ought to be strengthened by utilizing the capacity for scientific research and innovation. The examination of macro-environmental factors indicates that the GDP and product market are positively correlated with the manufacturing industry security. Benign market competition may encourage manufacturing enterprises to invest more to adopt large-scale production and upgrade equipment, thereby enhancing competitiveness.

Key words: manufacturing industry, industry security, cross hierarchical data envelopment analysis (CH-DEA), evaluation research

摘要：

2020年初，新冠疫情在世界范围内全面暴发，中国制造业受冲击显著，影响了中国整体经济健康稳定的发展。因此，分析中国制造业产业安全态势以应对制造业安全风险势在必行。创新地提出CH-DEA方法，并基于产业安全理论建立了制造业安全评价指标体系，从而科学合理地认识中国制造业产业安全现状。结果显示，2005~2020年期间中国制造业产业安全度总体呈现上升趋势，即制造业应对风险等突发事件能力及独立发展能力不断提高。微观障碍因素分析发现，现阶段中国制造业所面临的主要障碍是规模缩减，应利用科研创新能力提升制造业增加值。宏观环境影响因素分析显示，制造业产业安全与GDP、产品市场显著正相关。产品市场的良性竞争可以促使制造企业投入更多的资金采取规模化生产并更新设备，从而提升行业竞争力。

关键词: 制造业, 产业安全, CH-DEA, 评价研究