Abstract: Based on the upper-echelons theory, the logical relationship between CEO overconfidence and corporate horizontal and vertical performance volatility was analyzed from the perspective of CEO power. An analysis of the empirical data of China’s manufacturing companies from 2009 to 2016 indicates that CEO overconfidence has a positive effect on corporate horizontal and vertical performance volatility. In addition, CEO power significantly regulates the relationship between CEO overconfidence and corporate horizontal and vertical performance volatility. Moreover, CEO duality, high CEO ownership, and the proportion of internal directors strengthen the positive effect of CEO overconfidence on corporate horizontal and vertical performance volatility, while CEO term weakens the positive impact of CEO overconfidence on vertical performance volatility. Furthermore, R&D expenditure plays a mediating role in the process of CEO overconfidence, affecting the volatility of corporate horizontal and vertical performance.

Key words: CEO overconfidence；CEO power；horizontal performance variability；vertical performance volatility；R&, D expenditure

摘要： 基于高层梯队理论，从CEO权力视角剖析CEO过度自信与企业横向和纵向业绩波动性之间的逻辑关系。以2009~2016年中国制造业企业为研究对象，发现：CEO过度自信显著提高企业的横向业绩波动性和纵向业绩波动性；CEO权力将显著调节CEO过度自信与企业横向和纵向业绩波动性间的关系；CEO两职兼任、CEO所有权以及内部董事比例将增强CEO过度自信对企业横向和纵向业绩波动性的正向影响，CEO任期则将削弱CEO过度自信对企业纵向业绩波动性的正向影响；研发投入在CEO过度自信作用于企业横向和纵向业绩波动性的过程中发挥着部分中介作用。

关键词: CEO过度自信, CEO权力, 横向业绩波动性, 纵向业绩波动性, 研发投入